Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ramon UriasBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Ohtani scored on error, Lux safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Henderson.4–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 5O'Hearn doubled to right, Santander scored.4–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 3T. Hernández homered to left center (431 feet), Ohtani scored and Betts scored.3–5
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–5
- 3Betts singled to center, E. Hernández scored, Ohtani to second.3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 2McCann singled to right, Urías scored.3–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 2Urías doubled to right, Mullins scored and O'Hearn scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Ohtani homered to right center (391 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 51%
- ML BAL -105 / LAD -115
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 53.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -104
- BAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.2 – 4.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −4 | BAL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +26 Elo | LAD 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3038–26 | Road vs home | 43–232nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–60 | 65–67 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 47–52 | 57–57 |
| Underdog | 25–8 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders | 74–56–2 | 69–62–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 2–2 LAD in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.