Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ramon UriasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cole IrvinPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-4
- Jack FlahertyPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Urías homered to left (385 feet), Holliday scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 3T. Hernández singled to left, Ohtani scored, Betts to second.1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Rojas hit sacrifice fly to left, Edman scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2O'Hearn homered to right center (376 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML BAL +155 / LAD -185
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 55.5%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -166
- BAL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.7 – 4.8 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +5 | BAL: Cole Irvin: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +39 Elo | LAD 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 60.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3037–26 | Road vs home | 43–222nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–60 | 65–66 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 47–52 | 57–56 |
| Underdog | 24–8 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders | 74–55–2 | 69–61–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 1–2 LAD in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.