Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Emmanuel RiveraBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Albert SuarezPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Brendan RodgersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rodgers homered to left center (438 feet).5–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 25–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 9Mullins grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Holliday scored on error by catcher Stallings, Mullins second.5–2
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging5–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 35–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 9Holliday tripled to right, O'Hearn scored.4–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 4Rivera homered to center (432 feet), Urías scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Doyle singled to center, Tovar scored, McMahon to third.1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Tovar singled to center, Beck scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 10 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Rivera singled to center, Cowser scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 57%
- ML BAL -150 / COL +125
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.2 pts
- BAL: Elo 66.7%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- BAL -135
- COL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 6.1 – 5.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1417 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −4 | BAL: Albert Suarez: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +120 Elo | BAL 66.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 62.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 4th of 3038–28 | Road vs home | 31–3323rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–62 | 65–66 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 47–52 | 2–8 |
| Underdog | 25–10 | 63–57 |
| Overs–unders | 76–56–2 | 71–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 2–1 COL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.