Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Colton CowserBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Austin BarnesBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Bobby MillerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Edman hit sacrifice fly to left, Barnes scored.3–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–6
- 5Cowser homered to center (397 feet), Mullins scored and Holliday scored.3–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 33–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 4Rojas singled to right, Betts scored, T. Hernández thrown out at home.0–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 4Betts singled to right, Barnes scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 4Barnes doubled to left, Lux scored and Taylor scored.0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2Taylor singled to left, E. Hernández scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 57%
- ML BAL +120 / LAD -145
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 56.7%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -130
- BAL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.0 – 4.5 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −6 | BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 0.86 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAD: Bobby Miller: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +47 Elo | LAD 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 2nd of 3038–27 | Road vs home | 44–232nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–61 | 66–67 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 47–52 | 58–57 |
| Underdog | 25–9 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders | 75–56–2 | 70–62–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 2–3 LAD in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.