Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- James McCannBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Rockies- Michael TogliaBatting2-4
- Ty BlachPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Jones singled to left, Doyle scored, Toglia to third.6–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking6–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 26–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 7Henderson singled to right, Holliday scored.6–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 4McCann homered to left center (429 feet), Mullins scored.5–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 35–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 4Mullins singled to right, Mayo scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Mayo singled to right, Jiménez scored on fielding error by right fielder Cave, Mayo to third.2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Henderson singled to center, Slater scored, Santander to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 62%
- ML BAL -185 / COL +155
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- BAL: Elo 65.5%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -166
- COL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 5.8 – 4.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +1 | BAL: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Ty Blach: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +111 Elo | BAL 65.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 66.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 66.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3039–29 | Road vs home | 32–3423rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–63 | 66–67 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 48–53 | 2–8 |
| Underdog | 25–10 | 64–58 |
| Overs–unders | 77–57–2 | 72–61 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 3–2 COL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.