Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting2-4
- Reynaldo LopezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 7Jones hit sacrifice fly to center, Toglia scored.3–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 6Tovar homered to left (387 feet).2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Toglia homered to center (451 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Laureano singled to left, Soler scored, Ozuna to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 69%
- ML COL +210 / ATL -255
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 71.6%, market 69.0%
- Fair odds
- ATL -223
- COL +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.4 – 5.1 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1414 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +12 | COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +161 Elo | ATL 71.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 67.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 68.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 69.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 29th of 3019–52 | Road vs home | 38–287th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–70 | 67–71 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–8 | 46–60 |
| Underdog | 64–61 | 21–11 |
| Overs–unders | 72–64 | 50–85–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–10 ATL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 12.