Toronto Blue Jays at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Spencer HorwitzBatting4-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Braves- Luke WilliamsBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Harris II grounded out to second, Arcia scored, Williams to third.9–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–5
- 9Williams doubled to left, Laureano scored and Kelenic scored, Arcia to third.9–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–4
- 9Kelenic singled to right, Olson scored on fielding error by right fielder Lukes, Laureano to second.9–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–2
- 9Wagner singled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored, Horwitz to second.9–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–1
- 9Guerrero Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to second, Loperfido scored, Lukes out at second.8–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 9Lukes singled to center, Clement scored, Loperfido to second.7–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 5Harris II singled to right, Urshela scored, Harris II out stretching at second.6–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 5Wagner grounded out to first, Horwitz scored.6–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 5Horwitz doubled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored on error, Horwitz safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Williams.5–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 4Loperfido doubled to center, Clement scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 4Clement doubled to left, Barger scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Horwitz homered to right center (421 feet).2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Horwitz homered to center (420 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 60%
- ML TOR +140 / ATL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 56.7%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -149
- TOR +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.3 – 4.2 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −2 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +47 Elo | ATL 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 61.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 21st of 3033–40 | Road vs home | 39–298th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–71 | 68–72 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 27–40 | 47–61 |
| Underdog | 43–31 | 21–11 |
| Overs–unders | 76–64–1 | 50–87–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–1 ATL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.