Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon WilliamsonPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Mets- Mark VientosBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 10Vientos homered to left (401 feet), Nimmo scored.4–6
- 10Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–6
- 10Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 10Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 24–6
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 7Friedl homered to right (394 feet), Steer scored.4–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 6Martinez singled to right, Iglesias scored.2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 6Iglesias singled to left, Alonso scored, Iglesias to second.2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4De La Cruz homered to center (413 feet), India scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 1Vientos homered to left (368 feet), Lindor scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 62%
- ML CIN +150 / NYM -180
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- NYM: Elo 60.2%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- NYM -161
- CIN +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.2 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +16 | CIN: Fernando Cruz: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +72 Elo | NYM 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 62.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 18th of 3032–34 | Road vs home | 38–3215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–62 | 68–70 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 30–39 | 35–44 |
| Underdog | 49–23 | 33–26 |
| Overs–unders | 68–72–1 | 69–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 5–4 NYM in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.