Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tobias MyersPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Reds- Jake FraleyBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jakob JunisPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 11Espinal reached on infield single to pitcher, Hinds scored.3–4
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 5Friedl hit sacrifice fly to right, India scored, De La Cruz to third.3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Turang singled to center, Ortiz scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 4Adames homered to center (400 feet).2–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 32–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Perkins hit sacrifice fly to center, Ortiz scored, Chourio to second, Turang to third.1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2India hit sacrifice fly to left, Rosario scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Fraley homered to right (387 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML MIL -135 / CIN +115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 57.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -124
- CIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 5.0 – 4.5 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −3 | MIL: Tobias Myers: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Brandon Williamson: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +50 Elo | MIL 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.118th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 5th of 3040–31 | Road vs home | 32–3926th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–61 | 75–62 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–43 | 30–39 |
| Underdog | 42–18 | 45–23 |
| Overs–unders | 76–58 | 67–69–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 19–6 CIN in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 25.