Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Reds- Jonathan IndiaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Frelick grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Haase scored, Turang out at second.5–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 5India homered to left (403 feet).4–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 4Frelick singled to center, Adames scored and Mitchell scored.4–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 4Contreras homered to center (407 feet).2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 2De La Cruz singled to right, Benson scored, India to third.1–3
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 2Espinal homered to left center (403 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Adames homered to left (392 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Friedl grounded into fielder's choice to first, De La Cruz scored, Steer out at second.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 52%
- ML MIL -120 / CIN +100
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 55.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -109
- CIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.8 – 4.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −1 | MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +39 Elo | MIL 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 6th of 3037–31 | Road vs home | 32–3625th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–59 | 73–61 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–41 | 30–38 |
| Underdog | 41–18 | 43–23 |
| Overs–unders | 74–57 | 65–68–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 16–6 CIN in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 22.