Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Frankie MontasPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Reds- Amed RosarioBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- David BuchananPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Chourio homered to right center (384 feet).5–4
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball 35–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 25–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 6Rosario homered to left (420 feet), Smith scored.4–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 6Mitchell grounded out to shortstop, Adames scored, Perkins to third.4–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 34–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 5Steer singled to left, Benson scored and Marte scored, Steer to second.3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 3Adames homered to right center (397 feet), Chourio scored and Contreras scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 54%
- ML MIL -130 / CIN +110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 58.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -119
- CIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.4 – 4.1 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −22 | MIL: Frankie Montas: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Fernando Cruz: team allows 1.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +62 Elo | MIL 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 6th of 3039–31 | Road vs home | 32–3826th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–60 | 74–62 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–42 | 30–39 |
| Underdog | 42–18 | 44–23 |
| Overs–unders | 75–58 | 66–69–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 18–6 CIN in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 24.