Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Rhys HoskinsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- DL HallPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-4
- Rhett LowderPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Contreras homered to right center (399 feet), Turang scored.14–0
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play14–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 214–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul14–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging14–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 114–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging14–0
- 9Perkins hit sacrifice fly to center, Haase scored.12–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play12–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 112–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging12–0
- 9Turang doubled to right, Frelick scored, Haase to third.11–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul11–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 111–0
- 9Frelick doubled to right, Monasterio scored.10–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul10–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 110–0
- 9Monasterio doubled to left, Mitchell scored.9–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–0
- 9Adames homered to left (391 feet), Contreras scored and Hoskins scored.8–0
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play8–0
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging8–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 28–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 9Hoskins singled to center, Perkins scored, Contreras to third.5–0
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 35–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 25–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 7Hoskins homered to left (373 feet), Perkins scored.4–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 52%
- ML MIL +100 / CIN -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- CIN: Elo 45.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -109
- MIL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.7 – 4.8 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −4 | MIL: DL Hall: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · CIN: Rhett Lowder (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +31 Elo | MIL 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 6th of 3038–31 | Road vs home | 32–3726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–60 | 74–61 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–42 | 30–38 |
| Underdog | 41–18 | 44–23 |
| Overs–unders | 74–58 | 65–69–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 17–6 CIN in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 23.