Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jon SingletonBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tayler ScottPitching2.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Reds- Jonathan IndiaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Singleton homered to right (358 feet).5–12
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–12
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–12
- 6McCormick singled to left, Gamel scored, Dezenzo to second.4–12
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–12
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–12
- 6Dezenzo singled to center, Diaz scored and Dubón scored, Gamel to third.3–12
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–12
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–12
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–12
- 5Steer reached on infield single to third, India scored, Friedl to second.1–12
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–12
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–12
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 31–12
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–12
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–12
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–12
- 5Friedl singled to center, Rosario scored, India to second.1–11
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–11
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–11
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–11
- 3Stephenson singled to center, De La Cruz scored.1–10
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–10
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–10
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–10
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–10
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–10
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–10
- 2Gamel singled to right, Bregman scored.1–9
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–9
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–9
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–9
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–9
- 1Stephenson singled to center, India scored and De La Cruz scored.0–9
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–9
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–9
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–9
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–9
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–9
- 1De La Cruz singled to right, Espinal scored and Rosario scored, India to third.0–7
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 57%
- ML HOU -145 / CIN +120
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 55.7%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -130
- CIN +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.5 – 4.0 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +1 | HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +39 Elo | HOU 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 13th of 3034–34 | Road vs home | 34–3925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–66 | 77–62 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 42–54 | 30–39 |
| Underdog | 27–12 | 47–23 |
| Overs–unders | 56–76–3 | 67–71–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 0–4 CIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.