Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting2-3, 3 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Reds- Ty FranceBatting4-4, 1 RBI
- Julian AguiarPitching2.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Diaz hit sacrifice fly to center, Altuve scored, Alvarez to third.3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 5Rosario singled to center, Espinal scored.2–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 5Espinal singled to right, France scored and Fraley scored.2–4
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 22–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 3Diaz singled to right, Heyward scored and McCormick scored, Alvarez to second.2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 1France singled to center, De La Cruz scored, Stephenson to second.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Friedl hit sacrifice fly to right, India scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 60%
- ML HOU -165 / CIN +140
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 54.9%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -149
- CIN +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.2 – 4.3 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −3 | HOU: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Julian Aguiar: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +34 Elo | HOU 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 12th of 3034–33 | Road vs home | 33–3926th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–65 | 76–62 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 42–53 | 30–39 |
| Underdog | 27–12 | 46–23 |
| Overs–unders | 56–75–3 | 67–70–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 0–3 CIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.