Boston Red Sox at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 4Lindor singled to right, Torrens scored.1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 4Torrens doubled to left, Stewart scored on fielding error by left fielder O'Neill.1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 3Nimmo doubled to center, Lindor scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 3Duran singled to right, Rafaela scored, Duran out stretching at second.1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Marte grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Iglesias scored, McNeil out at second.0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 51%
- ML BOS -105 / NYM -115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 52.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -104
- BOS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.2 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −14 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Luis Severino: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +20 Elo | NYM 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.811th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 4th of 3039–29 | Road vs home | 35–3217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–75 | 65–70 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 24–50 | 32–44 |
| Underdog | 38–25 | 33–26 |
| Overs–unders | 71–64–2 | 67–68 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–1 NYM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.