New York Mets at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- J.D. MartinezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jonathan CannonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vientos hit sacrifice fly to center, Lindor scored.5–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 3Martinez homered to left center (368 feet), Winker scored.4–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Winker doubled to center, Alonso scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Bader grounded into fielder's choice to third, Winker scored, McNeil out at second, Martinez to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 1Benintendi doubled to center, Lopez scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 66%
- ML NYM -225 / CHW +185
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- NYM: Elo 64.8%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- NYM -197
- CHW +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 5.5 – 4.0 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1375 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | 0 | NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Jonathan Cannon: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +106 Elo | NYM 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 66.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 66.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 9th of 3034–31 | Road vs home | 18–5130th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–70 | 61–73 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 29–44 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 33–26 | 55–70 |
| Overs–unders | 67–65 | 62–71–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 2–1 CHW in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.