New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 11 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Carroll homered to center (437 feet), Bell scored.8–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–3
- 7Gurriel Jr. homered to left (373 feet).8–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 5Martinez scored, Alvarez safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Perdomo, McNeil to second, Taylor to third.8–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 18–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 5McNeil walked, Nimmo scored, Taylor to second, Martinez to third.7–0
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 47–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 37–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 27–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 17–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–0
- 5Taylor hit by pitch, Vientos scored, Martinez to second, Nimmo to third.6–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 5Winker hit sacrifice fly to left, Lindor scored.5–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 5Vientos singled to left, Alvarez scored, Lindor to second.4–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 5Alvarez singled to right, McNeil scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 2McNeil grounded into fielder's choice to first, Martinez scored, Taylor out at second.2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 2Alonso homered to right center (383 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 50%
- ML NYM -110 / ARI -110
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.4 pts
- ARI: Elo 55.4%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- ARI -100
- NYM -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.3 – 4.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −1 | NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +37 Elo | ARI 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.41st of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 11th of 3032–30 | Road vs home | 37–267th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–69 | 71–60 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 29–44 | 27–35 |
| Underdog | 31–25 | 44–25 |
| Overs–unders | 65–64 | 75–55–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 8–3 ARI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.