New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Harrison BaderBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Carroll homered to right center (396 feet), Gurriel Jr. scored, Smith scored and Perdomo scored.5–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–8
- 6Alonso hit sacrifice fly to left, Marte scored.5–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Bader homered to left (423 feet), Alvarez scored.4–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 5Alvarez singled to center, Martinez scored.2–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 5Martinez doubled to center, Nimmo scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 4Carroll homered to center (440 feet).0–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 10–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 3Pederson homered to right (415 feet), McCarthy scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2Guillorme singled to left, Gurriel Jr. scored, Del Castillo to second.0–1
- 2Pitch 9 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 53%
- ML NYM +105 / ARI -125
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.3 pts
- ARI: Elo 59.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -114
- NYM +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.6 – 4.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +13 | NYM: Luis Severino: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +67 Elo | ARI 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 9th of 3033–30 | Road vs home | 37–277th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–69 | 71–61 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 29–44 | 27–36 |
| Underdog | 32–25 | 44–25 |
| Overs–unders | 66–64 | 76–55–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 9–3 ARI in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 12.