Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Tyler O'NeillBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Trey SweeneyBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 2Sweeney doubled to left, McKinstry scored and Torkelson scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1O'Neill homered to left center (401 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 57%
- ML BOS +125 / DET -150
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- DET: Elo 55.1%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -135
- BOS +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.4 – 4.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +15 | BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +36 Elo | DET 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3039–27 | Road vs home | 32–3422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–74 | 71–64 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 24–50 | 20–34 |
| Underdog | 37–24 | 51–30 |
| Overs–unders | 71–62–2 | 71–64 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 8–3 DET in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.