Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Taylor WardBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Johnny CuetoPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brant HurterPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Carpenter homered to center (425 feet), Vierling scored.2–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 6Greene homered to center (425 feet).2–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 5Rogers homered to center (422 feet).2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Ward hit sacrifice fly to center, Adell scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Carpenter singled to center, Vierling scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Vierling doubled to right, Meadows scored on error, Vierling safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Adell.1–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Schanuel reached on infield single to pitcher, Ward scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 58%
- ML LAA +130 / DET -155
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- DET: Elo 59.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -140
- LAA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.4 – 5.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −4 | LAA: Johnny Cueto: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DET: Brant Hurter (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | DET +68 Elo | DET 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 27th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 24th of 3027–37 | Road vs home | 30–3224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–63 | 70–61 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–24 | 19–32 |
| Underdog | 62–39 | 51–29 |
| Overs–unders | 63–68 | 70–61 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 6–4 DET in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 10.