Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Connor WongBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Casey MizePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Carpenter grounded out to second, Greene scored.7–5
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–5
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 27–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking7–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 10Duran homered to right center (431 feet).7–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–4
- 10Rafaela homered to left center (398 feet), Sogard scored.6–4
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging6–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging6–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 26–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 9Rogers doubled to left, McKinstry scored.4–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Carpenter homered to left (386 feet), Ibáñez scored and Vierling scored.4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Wong homered to left (368 feet).4–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 4Wong doubled to left, O'Neill scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Abreu hit sacrifice fly to center, González scored, Duran to third.2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Casas grounded out to pitcher, Duran scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 52%
- ML BOS -120 / DET +100
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 47.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -109
- DET +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.3 – 4.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −11 | BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +18 Elo | DET 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3038–27 | Road vs home | 32–3321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–74 | 71–63 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–50 | 20–34 |
| Underdog | 37–24 | 51–29 |
| Overs–unders | 70–62–2 | 70–64 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 7–3 DET in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.