New York Mets at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Jesse WinkerBatting3-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting2-5
- Davis MartinPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Julks grounded into fielder's choice to third, Vargas scored, Amaya out at second.5–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 6Marte singled to center, Alonso scored, Winker to second.5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 3Sheets singled to right, Benintendi scored.4–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 3Winker singled to right, Lindor scored, Nimmo to third.4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 2Vargas grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Lee scored, Sosa out at second.3–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 1Winker homered to right center (404 feet).3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Alonso homered to left center (404 feet), Vientos scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 63%
- ML NYM -190 / CHW +160
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.9 pts
- NYM: Elo 67.9%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- NYM -170
- CHW +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.8 – 3.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1374 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −11 | NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +130 Elo | NYM 67.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 64.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.229th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 9th of 3035–31 | Road vs home | 18–5230th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–70 | 61–74 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 30–44 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 33–26 | 55–71 |
| Overs–unders | 67–66 | 62–72–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 3–1 CHW in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.