Boston Red Sox at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Mets- Jesse WinkerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bader hit sacrifice fly to left, Taylor scored.3–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–8
- 8Alvarez walked, Winker scored, McNeil to second, Taylor to third.3–7
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 43–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 33–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 8McNeil walked, Iglesias scored, Taylor to second, Winker to third.3–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 43–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 33–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 8Taylor walked, Nimmo scored, Winker to second, Iglesias to third.3–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 43–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 33–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 3Abreu hit sacrifice fly to center, Duran scored.3–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 23–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 3Devers hit sacrifice fly to right, Sogard scored, Duran to third.2–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 3Duran hit a ground rule double, Valdez scored, Sogard to third.1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 1Winker homered to center (394 feet), Lindor scored, Nimmo scored and Vientos scored.0–4
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 52%
- ML BOS +100 / NYM -120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.4 pts
- NYM: Elo 56.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -109
- BOS +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.7 – 3.8 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −6 | BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +46 Elo | NYM 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 5th of 3039–31 | Road vs home | 37–3216th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–77 | 67–70 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 24–50 | 34–44 |
| Underdog | 38–27 | 33–26 |
| Overs–unders | 72–65–2 | 68–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–3 NYM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.