Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Santiago EspinalBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Julian AguiarPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Mets- Starling MarteBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Espinal doubled to left, France scored and Steer scored.3–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 7Marte singled to right, Fraley scored.1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Marte singled to center, Alonso scored, Iglesias to second.0–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 62%
- ML CIN +155 / NYM -185
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- NYM: Elo 55.1%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -166
- CIN +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.7 – 4.8 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −9 | CIN: Julian Aguiar: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYM: Luis Severino: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +36 Elo | NYM 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 19th of 3032–36 | Road vs home | 40–3212th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–64 | 70–70 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 30–39 | 37–44 |
| Underdog | 49–25 | 33–26 |
| Overs–unders | 69–73–1 | 70–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 5–6 NYM in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.