New York Mets at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- J.D. MartinezBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Blue Jays- Ernie ClementBatting2-2
- Ryan YarbroughPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8E. Alvarez scored, Lindor to second on passed ball by Serven.3–2
- 8E. Alvarez scored, Lindor to second on passed ball by Serven.3–2
- 8Taylor scored on Nance wild pitch, E. Alvarez to third on wild pitch by Nance.2–2
- 8Taylor scored on Nance wild pitch, E. Alvarez to third on wild pitch by Nance.2–2
- 7Lukes hit sacrifice fly to left, Serven scored, Jimenez to second, Clement to third.1–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 7Jimenez hit by pitch, Schneider scored, Clement to second, Serven to third.1–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4Martinez singled to right, Alonso scored, Iglesias to third.1–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 53%
- ML NYM -125 / TOR +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- NYM: Elo 49.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -114
- TOR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.4 – 4.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +2 | NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Ryan Burr: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +1 Elo | TOR 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 30 |
| 7th of 3037–31 | Road vs home | 34–3521st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–71 | 72–71 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 37–45 | 27–40 |
| Underdog | 33–26 | 45–31 |
| Overs–unders | 70–71 | 77–65–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 0–3 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.