St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Thomas SaggeseBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 11Kirk singled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored, Wagner to second, Jimenez to third.3–4
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 8Saggese homered to left (374 feet).3–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 4Kirk singled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 32–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 4Horwitz hit sacrifice fly to left, Lukes scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Guerrero Jr. doubled to left, Springer scored, Lukes to third.2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Saggese grounded into fielder's choice to right, Burleson scored, Arenado out at second, Goldschmidt to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Arenado singled to center, Winn scored, Goldschmidt to second, Burleson to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 54%
- ML STL +110 / TOR -130
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 55.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -119
- STL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.6 – 3.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +8 | STL: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +36 Elo | TOR 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–729th of 30 |
| 16th of 3035–37 | Road vs home | 35–3722nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–74 | 74–72 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–45 | 27–40 |
| Underdog | 50–29 | 47–32 |
| Overs–unders | 69–74–2 | 79–66–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–1 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.