Seattle Mariners at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Steven MatzPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Crawford doubled to left, Raley scored, Rivas to third.10–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–4
- 8Walker doubled to left, Carpenter scored and Herrera scored.9–4
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play9–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 39–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 29–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 19–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging9–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–4
- 5Polanco homered to center (419 feet), Turner scored.9–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 29–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 19–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–2
- 2Fermín singled to center, Arenado scored and Herrera scored.7–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–2
- 2Arozarena homered to left (390 feet), Rodríguez scored.7–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–0
- 1Garver singled to left, Raley scored and Turner scored.5–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 1Raley doubled to center, Arozarena scored and Raleigh scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 1Raleigh singled to center, Rodríguez scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 55%
- ML SEA -135 / STL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 52.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -124
- STL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.0 – 3.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −1 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +15 Elo | SEA 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.424th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 25th of 3031–43 | Road vs home | 36–3318th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–83 | 70–71 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 36–61 | 20–43 |
| Underdog | 21–22 | 50–28 |
| Overs–unders | 63–75–2 | 68–71–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–2 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.