St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Pedro PagesBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting1-2, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Chourio homered to left center (420 feet), Hoskins scored, Frelick scored and Ortiz scored.3–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–9
- 6Baker hit sacrifice fly to center, Donovan scored.3–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 5Pagés homered to left (375 feet).2–5
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 32–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 4Hoskins homered to left (384 feet), Mitchell scored.1–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 3Pagés homered to center (415 feet).1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 1Adames homered to left (371 feet), Chourio scored and Bauers scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 61%
- ML STL +145 / MIL -175
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 61.3%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- MIL -156
- STL +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.3 – 4.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +6 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +80 Elo | MIL 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +1.01st of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 19th of 3033–36 | Road vs home | 40–254th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–69 | 73–62 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–42 | 31–44 |
| Underdog | 47–27 | 42–18 |
| Overs–unders | 66–68–2 | 76–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 8–15 MIL in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.