St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Luken BakerBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Brewers- Eric HaaseBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Baker singled to center, Winn scored, Arenado to second.3–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 8Haase homered to left center (438 feet).2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Ortiz grounded out to third, Mitchell scored.2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Nootbaar walked, Arenado scored, Herrera to second, Donovan to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 42–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Herrera walked, Goldschmidt scored, Donovan to second, Arenado to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 41–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 53%
- ML STL +105 / MIL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 61.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.6 – 3.9 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +4 | STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +83 Elo | MIL 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +1.01st of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 19th of 3034–37 | Road vs home | 41–264th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–70 | 74–63 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–42 | 32–45 |
| Underdog | 48–28 | 42–18 |
| Overs–unders | 68–68–2 | 78–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 9–16 MIL in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 25.