St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Steven MatzPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 12Burleson hit sacrifice fly to left, Siani scored.7–4
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–4
- 12Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–4
- 12Siani singled to left, Scott II scored and Herrera scored.6–4
- 12Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball 26–4
- 12Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 11Adames doubled to center, Perkins scored.4–4
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 11Goldschmidt singled to center, Arenado scored.4–3
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 5Chourio doubled to left, Turang scored on error, Chourio safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Nootbaar.3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Goldschmidt homered to left center (430 feet).3–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 3Chourio homered to center (403 feet).2–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Ortiz homered to left (370 feet).2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Goldschmidt doubled to right, Donovan scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 1Arenado hit sacrifice fly to center, Winn scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 58%
- ML STL +130 / MIL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 64.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -140
- STL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.4 – 4.1 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −2 | STL: Steven Matz: team allows 0.77 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +101 Elo | MIL 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +1.01st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 19th of 3033–37 | Road vs home | 41–254th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–70 | 74–62 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–42 | 32–44 |
| Underdog | 47–28 | 42–18 |
| Overs–unders | 67–68–2 | 77–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 8–16 MIL in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 24.