Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Seth BrownBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Brown singled to center, Bleday scored, Langeliers to second.2–3
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 22–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 4Brown homered to center (410 feet).2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 1Butler homered to center (408 feet).2–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 1Raleigh doubled to center, Crawford scored and Rodríguez scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 59%
- ML SEA -160 / OAK +135
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 57.4%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -145
- OAK +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.7 – 3.8 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −12 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · OAK: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +52 Elo | SEA 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.526th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 26th of 3028–41 | Road vs home | 34–3522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–81 | 75–62 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 34–59 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 20–22 | 66–52 |
| Overs–unders | 61–72–2 | 65–72 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 16–4 OAK in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 20.