Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Justin TurnerBatting3-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Angels- Mickey MoniakBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moniak homered to right (408 feet).4–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 7Moniak homered to right center (391 feet), Rendon scored.4–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 6Adell homered to left (403 feet).4–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 4Rodríguez singled to left, Moore scored and Robles scored, Crawford to second.4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4Turner homered to left (385 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Adell homered to center (405 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Turner homered to left (379 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 60%
- ML SEA -165 / LAA +140
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 58.5%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- SEA -149
- LAA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.2 – 3.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | 0 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +60 Elo | SEA 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.927th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 24th of 3028–38 | Road vs home | 27–4128th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–78 | 70–65 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 34–56 | 6–24 |
| Underdog | 20–22 | 64–41 |
| Overs–unders | 59–71–2 | 64–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 13–11 LAA in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 24.