Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- George KirbyPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Angels- Brandon DruryBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sam AldegheriPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Turner hit sacrifice fly to left, Rodríguez scored.9–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 29–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–5
- 7Robles reached on infield single to pitcher, Polanco scored, Garver to second.8–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 28–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 18–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–5
- 6Drury singled to center, Schanuel scored, Moniak to third.7–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–5
- 5Drury homered to right center (375 feet).7–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 17–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking7–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–4
- 5Moniak homered to right center (433 feet).7–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–3
- 4Rodríguez homered to center (400 feet), Crawford scored.7–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–2
- 1Schanuel hit sacrifice fly to center, Neto scored.5–2
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 35–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 1Ward homered to right (381 feet).5–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 35–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 1Robles singled to center, Moore scored, Garver to third.5–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 1Garver doubled to left, Polanco scored and Turner scored, Moore to third.4–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 62%
- ML SEA -180 / LAA +150
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.4%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -161
- LAA +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.8 – 3.7 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +4 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Sam Aldegheri (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +38 Elo | SEA 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 60.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.827th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 26th of 3027–38 | Road vs home | 27–4028th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–78 | 70–64 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 33–56 | 6–24 |
| Underdog | 20–22 | 64–40 |
| Overs–unders | 58–71–2 | 63–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 12–11 LAA in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 23.