Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Osvaldo BidoPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Langeliers homered to left (418 feet).4–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking4–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 34–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging4–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 6Turner singled to left, Rodríguez scored, Arozarena to second.4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 3Langeliers homered to left (400 feet), Rooker scored and Bleday scored.3–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 3Rooker doubled to left, Butler scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Rodríguez hit sacrifice fly to right, Robles scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Raleigh homered to right (386 feet), Crawford scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML SEA -145 / OAK +120
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 54.3%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -130
- OAK +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.0 – 3.5 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +5 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · OAK: Osvaldo Bido: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +30 Elo | SEA 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.525th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 26th of 3028–40 | Road vs home | 33–3522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–80 | 74–62 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 34–58 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 20–22 | 65–52 |
| Overs–unders | 60–72–2 | 64–72 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 16–3 OAK in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 19.