Seattle Mariners at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Dylan MooreBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Raley singled to right, Raleigh scored.6–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Raleigh doubled to right, Haniger scored and Rodríguez scored.5–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 35–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 7Walker homered to left (405 feet).3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 6Moore homered to left (372 feet), Crawford scored.3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Arozarena hit sacrifice fly to center, Robles scored, Rodríguez to third.1–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 50%
- ML SEA -110 / STL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- STL: Elo 48.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- STL -100
- SEA -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.8 – 3.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +7 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +9 Elo | SEA 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 26th of 3030–42 | Road vs home | 35–3218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–82 | 69–70 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 36–60 | 20–42 |
| Underdog | 20–22 | 49–28 |
| Overs–unders | 63–73–2 | 68–69–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 2–1 STL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.