Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Joey EstesPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rooker homered to center (412 feet), Butler scored.6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Raley homered to center (410 feet), Rodríguez scored.6–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 5Rooker homered to left center (385 feet).4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 5Raleigh hit sacrifice fly to right, Robles scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Brown hit sacrifice fly to center, Wilson scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Rodríguez homered to left (448 feet).3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Raleigh homered to right (397 feet), Robles scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML SEA -145 / OAK +120
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 56.6%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -130
- OAK +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.0 – 3.5 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +3 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · OAK: Joey Estes: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +46 Elo | SEA 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 26th of 3029–42 | Road vs home | 35–3621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–82 | 76–63 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 35–60 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 20–22 | 67–53 |
| Overs–unders | 62–73–2 | 66–73 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 17–5 OAK in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 22.