Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Luis UriasBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- JP SearsPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Urías doubled to center, Robles scored.16–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play16–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking16–3
- 8Garver grounded out to third, Turner scored, Robles to third.15–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play15–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking15–3
- 8Robles doubled to left, Raleigh scored and Arozarena scored, Turner to third.14–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play14–3
- 7Schuemann grounded out to shortstop, Gelof scored.12–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play12–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging12–3
- 7Moore hit sacrifice fly to center, Turner scored, Urías to second, Robles to third.12–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play12–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul12–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 212–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 112–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul12–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking12–2
- 7Urías walked, Arozarena scored, Robles to second, Turner to third.11–2
- 7Pitch 9 : Ball 411–2
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul11–2
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul11–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul11–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 311–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 211–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul11–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 111–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul11–2
- 7Robles singled to center, Raleigh scored, Turner to second, Arozarena to third.10–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–2
- 7Arozarena doubled to right, Crawford scored and Rodríguez scored, Raleigh to third.9–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–2
- 7Rodríguez reached on infield single to third, Moore scored, Crawford to second.7–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 37–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 27–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 7Urías homered to left (399 feet).6–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML SEA -145 / OAK +120
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 53.1%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -130
- OAK +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.0 – 3.5 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +7 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +22 Elo | SEA 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.525th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 26th of 3028–42 | Road vs home | 35–3519th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–82 | 76–62 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 34–60 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 20–22 | 67–52 |
| Overs–unders | 61–73–2 | 65–73 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 16–5 OAK in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 21.