New York Mets at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco AlvarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Blue Jays- Ernie ClementBatting2-4
- Bowden FrancisPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Barger singled to right, Varsho scored.6–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 16–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 9F. Alvarez homered to center (439 feet), Nimmo scored and Martinez scored.6–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Marte hit sacrifice fly to right, E. Alvarez scored.3–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 9Alonso hit sacrifice fly to right, Iglesias scored, E. Alvarez to third.2–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 12–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 9Lindor homered to right (398 feet).1–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Schneider grounded into fielder's choice to third, Guerrero Jr. scored, Wagner to second, Clement out at third.0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 55%
- ML NYM -135 / TOR +115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 50.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -124
- TOR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.0 – 3.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +12 | NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Bowden Francis: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +3 Elo | NYM 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 7th of 3038–32 | Road vs home | 35–3622nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–73 | 74–71 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 37–47 | 27–40 |
| Underdog | 33–26 | 47–31 |
| Overs–unders | 71–72 | 78–66–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 1–4 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.