Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jonathan IndiaBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Jakob JunisPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Winn grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Saggese scored, Siani safe at second on fielding error by shortstop De La Cruz, Donovan to third.1–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 8Saggese singled to center, Nootbaar scored.1–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–5
- 7Donovan homered to right (385 feet), Saggese scored.1–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 6Nootbaar hit sacrifice fly to left, Winn scored.1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6India singled to left, Fraley scored, Espinal to second.1–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Winn homered to left (399 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 57%
- ML CIN +125 / STL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- STL: Elo 48.7%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- STL -135
- CIN +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.4 – 4.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +5 | CIN: Jakob Junis: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +9 Elo | CIN 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.424th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 15th of 3035–37 | Road vs home | 37–3518th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–64 | 70–74 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–39 | 20–45 |
| Underdog | 53–25 | 50–29 |
| Overs–unders | 69–77–1 | 69–73–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 13–12 STL in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 25.