Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Santiago EspinalBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Brandon WilliamsonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Goldschmidt doubled to left, Siani scored, Burleson to third.1–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 31–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Arenado homered to center (402 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4Espinal singled to center, Steer scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 11 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 10 : Ball 31–0
- 4Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 57%
- ML CIN +125 / STL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- STL: Elo 50.4%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- STL -135
- CIN +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.4 – 4.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +5 | CIN: Brandon Williamson: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +2 Elo | STL 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 15th of 3035–36 | Road vs home | 36–3519th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 82–64 | 70–73 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–39 | 20–44 |
| Underdog | 52–25 | 50–29 |
| Overs–unders | 69–76–1 | 69–72–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 13–11 STL in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 24.