St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Blue Jays- Davis SchneiderBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fermín grounded out to second, Burleson scored.2–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 22–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 7Kirk singled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored, Horwitz to second.1–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–7
- 7Guerrero Jr. singled to center, Lukes scored.1–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 6Schneider singled to left, Clement scored, Barger to second.1–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 6Barger singled to right, Horwitz scored, Clement to third.1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 6Kirk grounded out to second, Guerrero Jr. scored, Clement to second, Horwitz to third.1–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 11–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 6Clement grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Lukes scored on throwing error by shortstop Winn, Horwitz to second, Guerrero Jr. to third.1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Schneider homered to right center (379 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Walker homered to left center (397 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 52%
- ML STL +100 / TOR -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 56.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -109
- STL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.2 – 4.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +8 | STL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +47 Elo | TOR 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 19th of 3035–38 | Road vs home | 36–3721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–74 | 74–73 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–45 | 27–41 |
| Underdog | 51–29 | 47–32 |
| Overs–unders | 69–75–2 | 79–67–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–2 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.