Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Michael TogliaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brusdar GraterolPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Toglia homered to right (374 feet).4–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 7T. Hernández reached on infield single to second, Ohtani scored.3–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 7Betts hit sacrifice fly to center, Edman scored on error, Ohtani safe at third on throwing error by center fielder Hilliard.3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 6T. Hernández homered to left (398 feet).3–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 6Hilliard homered to right center (382 feet).3–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 5Ohtani homered to center (423 feet), Muncy scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 32–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 5Pages homered to left center (407 feet).2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Blackmon homered to center (420 feet).2–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Goodman grounded out to third, Rodgers scored, Hilliard to second, Toglia to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 71%
- ML COL +230 / LAD -285
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- LAD: Elo 70.1%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- LAD -244
- COL +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.3 – 5.2 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1424 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +6 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Ryan Brasier: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +148 Elo | LAD 70.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 69.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 69.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 30th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 29th of 3023–55 | Road vs home | 48–262nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–75 | 77–75 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–8 | 68–62 |
| Underdog | 72–66 | 9–13 |
| Overs–unders | 77–72 | 85–66–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 5–15 LAD in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 20.