Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Enrique HernandezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Landon KnackPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fortes hit sacrifice fly to right, Lopez scored.8–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging8–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 28–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–4
- 8Taylor singled to left, Freeman scored and Smith scored, Muncy to second.8–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–3
- 7Fortes hit sacrifice fly to left, Lopez scored.6–3
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 36–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 26–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 7Lopez singled to center, Bride scored and Stowers scored.6–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 4E. Hernández homered to left center (430 feet), Smith scored and Pages scored.6–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 4Edman homered to right (363 feet), Freeman scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 2Smith homered to left (394 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 64%
- ML LAD -205 / MIA +170
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 61.7%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- LAD -181
- MIA +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.9 – 3.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +9 | LAD: Landon Knack: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MIA: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +83 Elo | LAD 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 64.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.129th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −1.328th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3040–35 | Road vs home | 29–4729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–75 | 69–81 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 66–62 | 2–20 |
| Underdog | 9–13 | 67–61 |
| Overs–unders | 83–66–1 | 82–67–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 6–4 MIA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.