Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jonah BrideBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Darren McCaughanPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Nationals- Dylan CrewsBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Norby hit sacrifice fly to right, Conine scored.6–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 26–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 16–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 8Lopez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Norby scored on error and Bride scored on throwing error by second baseman L. García Jr., Burger safe at second on error.5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Bride singled to center, Edwards scored, Norby to second.3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 3Bride hit sacrifice fly to right, Sanoja scored.2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 3Norby grounded out to shortstop, Fortes scored, Sanoja to third.1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Tena doubled to left, Wood scored and Crews scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 1Crews reached on infield single to second, Abrams scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 62%
- ML MIA +155 / WSH -185
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- WSH: Elo 53.6%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -166
- MIA +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.7 – 4.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −14 | MIA: Darren McCaughan: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +25 Elo | WSH 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 28th of 3026–45 | Road vs home | 33–3827th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–79 | 79–66 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–20 | 11–18 |
| Underdog | 64–59 | 68–48 |
| Overs–unders | 80–64–1 | 70–74–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 12–10 WSH in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 22.