Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting3-6, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Jesse ChavezPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Nationals- Jose TenaBatting2-4
- MacKenzie GorePitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Harris II homered to right center (414 feet).12–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play12–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 212–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking12–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 112–0
- 8Murphy singled to center, Duvall scored, Laureano to second, Olson to third.11–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–0
- 6Murphy homered to left (374 feet), Laureano scored.10–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 210–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 110–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking10–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–0
- 5Arcia homered to center (393 feet).8–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–0
- 4Laureano singled to right, Ozuna scored, Olson to third.7–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 17–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–0
- 4Olson singled to right, Soler scored, Ozuna to third.6–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking6–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 36–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 26–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 4Harris II homered to right (377 feet).5–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Laureano doubled to center, Olson scored and Ozuna scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Olson doubled to center, Soler scored, Ozuna to third.2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Soler hit a ground rule double, Williams scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 57%
- ML ATL -145 / WSH +120
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 58.4%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -130
- WSH +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.0 – 3.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +4 | ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +59 Elo | ATL 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.525th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 10th of 3038–35 | Road vs home | 32–3727th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–75 | 78–65 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 47–64 | 11–18 |
| Underdog | 21–11 | 67–47 |
| Overs–unders | 51–89–3 | 69–73–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 12–12 WSH in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 24.