Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Jorge SolerBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Max FriedPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ruiz singled to right, Tena scored.1–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 6Soler doubled to center, Harris II scored.1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 5Yepez grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Chaparro scored, Wood out at second.0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Abrams homered to center (420 feet).0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 3Wood reached on infield single to pitcher, Abrams scored, Crews to second.0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Crews singled to right, Young scored, Abrams to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 60%
- ML ATL -165 / WSH +140
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 58.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -149
- WSH +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.2 – 3.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +1 | ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +57 Elo | ATL 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 60.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 1st of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 10th of 3039–35 | Road vs home | 32–3827th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–75 | 78–66 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 48–64 | 11–18 |
| Underdog | 21–11 | 67–48 |
| Overs–unders | 52–89–3 | 70–73–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 13–12 WSH in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 25.