Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting3-5, 5 RBI
- Bobby MillerPitching2.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Marlins- Jesus SanchezBatting5-5, 3 RBI
- Darren McCaughanPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Muncy doubled to right, T. Hernández scored and Betts scored.9–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–11
- 8Burger homered to center (415 feet), Pache scored.7–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–11
- 7Muncy singled to center, Freeman scored.7–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–9
- 6Stowers doubled to right, J. Sánchez scored.6–9
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–9
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–9
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–9
- 6Burger grounded out to shortstop, Norby scored.6–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–8
- 5Freeman hit sacrifice fly to left, Betts scored.6–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 26–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 16–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–7
- 4Stowers tripled to right, J. Sánchez scored.5–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–7
- 4J. Sánchez doubled to right, Norby scored.5–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 15–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–6
- 4Rojas homered to left (363 feet).5–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 3Lopez homered to left (367 feet).4–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 3Muncy doubled to center, T. Hernández scored and Freeman scored.4–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 67%
- ML LAD -235 / MIA +195
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 60.9%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -207
- MIA +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.5 – 4.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1440 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +6 | LAD: Bobby Miller: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Darren McCaughan: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +77 Elo | LAD 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 69.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 67.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.829th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | −1.328th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 6th of 3040–34 | Road vs home | 28–4729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–74 | 68–81 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 66–61 | 2–20 |
| Underdog | 9–13 | 66–61 |
| Overs–unders | 82–66–1 | 81–67–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 6–3 MIA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.