Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Muncy homered to right center (428 feet).9–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 39–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 29–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 19–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–2
- 9Edman homered to right center (411 feet).8–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–2
- 9T. Hernández homered to center (408 feet), Freeman scored.7–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 27–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–2
- 9Freeman singled to left, Ohtani scored on error and Betts scored on fielding error by left fielder Kelenic, Freeman to second.5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 9Betts singled to left, Smith scored, Ohtani to second.3–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 7Ohtani doubled to right, Smith scored, Pages to third.2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 5Ohtani doubled to right, Muncy scored, Lux to third.1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3d'Arnaud reached on infield single to second, Soler scored, Olson to second, Ozuna to third.0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 3Olson walked, Harris II scored, Ozuna to second, Soler to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 40–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 51%
- ML LAD -115 / ATL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- LAD: Elo 47.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -104
- ATL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.3 – 4.2 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −7 | LAD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +15 Elo | ATL 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.81st of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 9th of 3038–34 | Road vs home | 42–317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–74 | 71–76 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 65–61 | 50–65 |
| Underdog | 8–13 | 21–11 |
| Overs–unders | 80–66–1 | 53–91–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 6–6 ATL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.