Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Paredes hit sacrifice fly to left, Suzuki scored.10–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 110–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–4
- 9Bellinger singled to center, Swanson scored, Suzuki to third.9–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul9–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 29–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–4
- 8Crow-Armstrong hit sacrifice fly to center, Busch scored.8–4
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play8–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 38–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 28–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–4
- 7Betts homered to left (390 feet), Ohtani scored.7–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking7–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 37–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 27–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 6Amaya singled to left, Busch scored and Crow-Armstrong scored.7–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 27–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 6Busch singled to right, Bellinger scored, Paredes to third.5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 5Muncy hit sacrifice fly to left, Ohtani scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 34–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 5Betts singled to center, Taylor scored, Ohtani to third.4–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 63%
- ML CHC +160 / LAD -190
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- LAD: Elo 60.1%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- LAD -170
- CHC +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.2 – 5.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +2 | CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.82 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +71 Elo | LAD 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 61.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.83rd of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 15th of 3035–37 | Road vs home | 47–242nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–72 | 72–70 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 22–46 | 64–59 |
| Underdog | 48–26 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders | 66–75–1 | 76–65–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 5–5 LAD in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.