Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Angels- Taylor WardBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 10Betts homered to left center (421 feet), Kiermaier scored and Ohtani scored.6–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 10Rojas singled to left, Edman scored.3–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Ward homered to right (347 feet).2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 3Betts singled to left, Ohtani scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Ohtani tripled to right, Rojas scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2O'Hoppe homered to center (438 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 61%
- ML LAD -175 / LAA +145
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- LAD: Elo 65.1%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -156
- LAA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.2 – 4.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −16 | LAD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +109 Elo | LAD 65.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 65.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 65.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.827th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 7th of 3037–31 | Road vs home | 29–4128th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–69 | 72–65 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 61–58 | 6–24 |
| Underdog | 8–11 | 66–41 |
| Overs–unders | 75–62–1 | 65–72 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 5–1 LAA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.